Sucker's Bet
By Todd Strandberg
At the heart of many emails I receive is content I identify as the "Sucker's
Bet." The people who send us these messages view us "Doomsday Christians" as
wasting our lives by endlessly waiting for a Lord who is never coming. They base
their opinion on the idea that Jesus hasn't come in 2000 years, so this complete
lack of activity should prove that He is not coming at all.
Some of these people bet they will have the
satisfaction of watching me squander my life on a meaningless quest. But I'm not
sure where they see the payoff. If I outlive them, there is no payoff. If they
outlive me, some other Christian will carry on the bet. The only wager I see is
their hope that Jesus doesn't come back and bring their carefree existence to a
premature end.
What is a "Sucker's Bet"? It's a gamble that someone makes based on a false view
of the odds. Someone believes he has a higher likelihood of winning than he
actually does. In most cases, the sucker does not realize he is being put at a
disadvantage. It's not until these people come up shorthanded that they realize
they run afoul of the rules of logical thinking.
Games of Chance
The genesis of deception begins with the failure to
understand that the world is filled with people who are constantly scheming ways
to deceive us. A wise person uses critical thinking to assess all
questionable situations. I can think of three popular games of chance that
perfectly illustrate that things are not always what they appear to be.
"Milk Bottle Toss" -- If you have ever been to a carnival, you may have
seen the "milk bottle toss." The game may have other names, but it usually
involves trying to use three or four beanbags to knock down six small metal
bottles that are stacked in a pyramid. What makes this a sucker's bet is the
fact that the three bottles on the bottom of the pyramid are much heavier than
the ones on top. While the three lighter-weight bottles on the top row can be
easily knocked over, toppling those on the bottom requires a direct hit.
"Let's Make a Deal" -- Back in the late 1970s, several TV game shows
offered people the chance of winning big prizes through a random selection. In
one of these setups, a contestant was told to chose from five boxes, with one
containing the top prize and the others containing prizes of lesser value. After
the person made his or her selection, the host would often open three of the
remaining boxes, giving the impression that the contestant now had a 50/50
chance of being a big winner. Because the host knew which box contained the keys
to the shiny new Buick, the contestant's chances were still only 20 percent. If
the host offered him $5,000 to pass on the opportunity to win the car, the wise
choice would be to take the money and run.
"The Claw" -- Another "Sucker's Bet" is the claw vending machine you
might see at a mall or at the entrance of a supermarket. The game features
prizes--usually plush toys such as teddy bears--heaped inside a clear case. The
player puts coins into the machine, activating a joystick that controls the claw
for a short time. The catch is that the player can move the claw back, forth,
and sideways--but not up or down. As popular as the machines are, they are
commonly considered to be rigged. In many cases, the claw lacks the mechanical
strength to extract a prize. Inside these one-hooked-bandits is a control box
that controls the grip strength and "pay-out" odds. A survey by a British group
found that a typical machine is set to offer only a reasonable chance every
fourth try. Having played one of these games before, I've noticed my chances
were comparable with what they would be if I were blindfolded.
Know The End-Time Odds
I believe people who scoff at
prophecy are making a "Sucker's Bet" because they fail to realize that prophecy
is in an advanced state of fulfillment. Most of these people make assumptions
about end-time prophecy without even studying the evidence.
For centuries we've had general signs that pointed to man's prophetic destiny.
While atheists promise a utopian society, the reality is that we are moving
closer to the type of self-destruction the Bible warned about.
All bets should have been off when, in 1948, Israel
became a nation. The Bible predicted its rebirth, and for several
centuries it seemed impossible that this would happen. On several occasions, the
Jews almost never had the chance to re-gather as a nation. Hitler came very
close to wiping out any hope of a future Israel.
The critics need to realize that the Bible was correct about the Jews. It didn't
predict the Moabites would be reformed as a nation. Of
all the thousands of civilizations that existed, Israel is the only nation that
has come back from the dead. When the Romans destroyed the State of Israel in 70
AD, I don't think any observer would have been willing to wager that people
would be back.
The odds of improbability don't just stop at Israel. Bible prophecy predicted a
number of other events that are in the advanced stages of coming true. The Word
of God warned that China would rise to be a world power; it foretold of Europe
forming a single government; it said the world would someday have a global
integrated financial market; and it predicted the diplomatic struggle we see
today over who should control Jerusalem.
Jesus said something that makes it all the more risky to bet against prophecy.
In Matthew 24:34, He told us, "This generation shall not pass, till all these
things be fulfilled." There is no consensus on how long "this generation" would
last, but because many key prophetic events are in the late stages of
development, it would be logical to place us close to the end of that
generation.
Betting Against Yourself
Ironically, the Bible prophesies that one of the signs of the end-times is
people making "Sucker's Bets." The more these people mock, the more they are
pushing the prophetic clock closer to doomsday.
"Know this first of all, that in the last days mockers
will come with {their} mocking, following after their own lusts, and saying,
'Where is the promise of His coming? Forever since the fathers fell asleep, all
continues just as it was from the beginning of creation'" (2 Pet. 3:3-4).
In a way, these folks are placing bets against themselves. They may verbalize
their opposition, but all their chips are on helping to fulfill prophecy.
If the end-time message is false, there should be no
need for any great concern.
When I respond to people, I reply to the real issue they are secretly
addressing. People usually write me because they are bothered by events that
confirm Bible prophecy. I point out to them that prophetic fulfillment is the
real reason they're mad at me, and I warn them by saying,
"If my luck with the end-time signs doesn’t run out soon, yours will."
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